Exploring the contribution of complexity theory to the system of political negotiations – a case study of the intractable conflict in Cyprus

Abstract

The thesis explores the nature of political negotiations that has been in place in Cyprus since 1968 under UN Good Offices Mission auspices, with special attention to the period 2008 and 2014 when the process of full-fledged negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations Secretary General was revived through the establishment of six main chapters on substantive issues with the intention to reach an agreement based on bizonal, bicommunal federation with both communities enjoying political equality. Cyprus has experienced a long-standing intractable conflict between Greek and Turkish Cypriots since before 1974 when the government of Turkey exercised unilateral intervention based on the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee, ultimately leading to UN engagement to stabilise the conflict. The major outcome of the intervention was the division of the island into two sections, the South and North, with the ceasefire line (1974) to become the United Nations Buffer Zone (green line) persisting through time. Since then the conflict may be described as a stalemate with neither side gaining ground over the other and effectively no binding progress made. Through a series of intensive interviews with Greek and Turkish Cypriot political leaders and United Nations experts together with a number of other well-informed academics on both sides of the island, as well as more general research, the thesis explores their experiences and views on the nature of political negotiations in the 2008-2014 period. Part of the research concentrates on obtaining their perceptions on the nature of the stalemate as a prominent feature of political negotiations. The other part pays attention to an exploration of the readiness of the parties to accept an alternative to the conventional wisdom of political negotiation methodology, through selected ideas drawn from complexity theory. These mainly include ideas from systems thinking notably the concept of leverage points, supported by several other aspects of complexity. The evidence-base for the thesis leads to the core argument that the elements of reductionism, linearity and sequential approach to political negotiations between 2008 and 2014 period, together with strong psychological dimension embedded in the psyche of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities on both sides of the island, penetrated the system of political negotiations and is a major obstacle preventing the sides reaching settlement. Further, employment of a political elitist formula into the system of negotiations produced additional obstacles to negotiations, as it became clear from the interviews that both the Greek and Turkish civil society on Cyprus were not involved in the process of negotiations which led to a lack of momentum being achieved. In terms of original knowledge, the contribution of the research identifies reductionism and linearity in the system of the political negotiations as a likely cause of stalemate. The thesis introduces ideas from complexity theory, notably fractal and systems thinking theories that offer an alternative interpretation and approach, which appeared to attract the interest of practitioners as a feasible and innovative way of facilitating political negotiations. A major awareness while undertaking the research was the unknown elements, which may be termed ‘political will’ that run beneath the surface of the conflict in Cyprus.