Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/54280
Type: Conference paper
Title: More-or-less elicitation (MOLE): Testing a heuristic elicitation method
Author: Welsh, M.
Lee, M.
Begg, S.
Citation: Proceedings of the 30th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2008), 23-26 July, 2008: pp. 493-498
Publisher: Cognitive Science Society
Publisher Place: USA
Issue Date: 2008
ISBN: 9780976831846
Conference Name: Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (30th : 2008 : Washington DC)
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Matthew B. Welsh, Michael D. Lee and Steve H. Begg
Abstract: Elicitation of people’s knowledge is a central methodological challenge for psychology, with important impacts in many technical disciplines and industrial settings. The need to convert an expert’s beliefs into a useable format is of particular importance when judgments and decisions are made under uncertainty. Simply asking a person for their best estimate or to estimate a range is subject to many biases – e.g., overconfidence – and methods for eliciting information that avoid these effects are required. This paper presents a heuristic-based elicitation method, More-Or-Less Elicitation (MOLE) which, rather than requiring people make absolute judgments, asks them to make repeated relative judgments. MOLE uses these, along with confidence statements, to construct probability distributions (pdfs) representing a person’s beliefs. We evaluate MOLE by comparing these subjective pdfs with ranges elicited using traditional methods. The central finding is that use of MOLE greatly improves the accuracy and precision of elicited ranges, thereby reducing overconfidence. The benefits of this and other possible heuristic-based methods of elicitation are discussed.
Keywords: Elicitation; Uncertainty; Overconfidence; Heuristic
Description: The document attached has been archived with permission from the copyright holder.
Rights: © the authors
RMID: 0020083271
Appears in Collections:Australian School of Petroleum publications
Environment Institute publications

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