Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/2440/580
Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Statistical modelling and prediction associated with the HIV/AIDS epidemic |
Author: | Solomon, P. Wilson, S. |
Citation: | The Mathematical Scientist, 2001; 26:87-102 |
Publisher: | Applied Probability Trust |
Issue Date: | 2001 |
ISSN: | 0312-3685 |
Organisation: | Centre for the Molecular Genetics of Development |
Statement of Responsibility: | P. J. Solomon and S. R. Wilson |
Abstract: | This paper gives an overview of the fundamental mathematical modelling and statistical procedures underlying the practices widely used in industrialised countries for predicting AIDS incidence and prevalence, as well as estimating past HIV incidence. Such predictions are needed for public health and insurance planning. In particular, we consider extrapolation forecasting, prediction of trends in small groups, stochastic epidemic modelling, backcalculation and multistage modelling. |
Description: | © Applied Probability Trust 2001 |
Appears in Collections: | Applied Mathematics publications Aurora harvest Centre for the Molecular Genetics of Development publications |
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