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https://hdl.handle.net/2440/73287
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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Prevalence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in mainland China: Analysis of National Surveillance Data, 2004-2009 |
Author: | Liu, X. Jiang, B. Bi, P. Yang, W. Liu, Q. |
Citation: | Epidemiology and Infection, 2012; 140(5):851-857 |
Publisher: | Cambridge Univ Press |
Issue Date: | 2012 |
ISSN: | 0950-2688 1469-4409 |
Statement of Responsibility: | X. Liu, B. Jiang, P. Bi, W. Yang and Q. Liu |
Abstract: | The monthly and annual incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China for 2004–2009 was analysed in conjunction with associated geographical and demographic data. We applied the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to fit and forecast monthly HFRS incidence in China. HFRS was endemic in most regions of China except Hainan Province. There was a high risk of infection for male farmers aged 30–50 years. The fitted SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model had a root-mean-square-error criterion of 0·0133 that indicated accurate forecasts were possible. These findings have practical applications for more effective HFRS control and prevention. The conducted SARIMA model may have applications as a decision support tool in HFRS control and risk-management planning programmes. |
Keywords: | Epidemics geographical information systems infectious disease epidemiology haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome |
Rights: | Copyright status unknown |
DOI: | 10.1017/S0950268811001063 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0950268811001063 |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 5 Environment Institute publications Public Health publications |
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