Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/73405
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Type: Journal article
Title: Projected years lost due to disabilities (YLDs)for bacillary dysentery related to increased temperature in temperate and subtropical cities of China
Author: Zhang, Y.
Bi, P.
Sun, Y.
Hiller, J.
Citation: Journal of Environmental Monitoring, 2012; 14(2):510-516
Publisher: Royal Soc Chemistry
Issue Date: 2012
ISSN: 1464-0325
1464-0333
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Ying Zhang, Peng Bi, Yuwei Sun and Janet E. Hiller
Abstract: The impact of climate change on enteric infection has been a concern in recent years. This study aims to project disability burdens of bacillary dysentery (BD) associated with increasing temperature in different climatic zones in China. Years Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) were used as the measure of burden of bacillary dysentery in this study. A temperate city in northern China and a subtropical city in southern China were selected as the study areas. The quantitative relationship between temperature and the number of cases in each city was base on the regression models developed in our previous studies. YLDs for bacillary dysentery in 2000 were used as the baseline data. Projection of YLDs for bacillary dysentery in 2020 and 2050 under future temperature scenarios were conducted. Demographic changes over the next 20 to 50 years in study cities were considered in the projections. Under the temperature scenarios alone, the YLDs for bacillary dysentery may increase by up to 80% by 2020 and 174% by 2050 in the temperate city and up to 75% increase in the YLDs by 2020 and a 147% increase by 2050 in the tropical city. Considering potential changes in both temperature and population size and structure, if other factors remain constant, compared with the YLDs observed in 2000, the YLDs for bacillary dysentery may double by 2020 and triple by 2050 in both the temperate and subtropical cities in China. The temperature-related health burden of enteric infection in China may greatly increase in the future if there is no effective intervention. Relevant public health strategies should be developed at an earlier stage to prevent and reduce the impact of infectious disease associated with climate change.
Keywords: Humans; Dysentery, Bacillary; Absenteeism; Temperature; Tropical Climate; Population Growth; Time; Adolescent; Adult; Middle Aged; Child; Child, Preschool; Infant; Infant, Newborn; China; Female; Male; Young Adult; Climate Change
Rights: © The Royal Society of Chemistry 2012
RMID: 0020116835
DOI: 10.1039/c1em10391a
Appears in Collections:Public Health publications
Environment Institute publications

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