Can failure effects of 'autonomous adaptation' to extreme flood events in South Asia cope With future climate change? - a case of Bangladesh

Abstract

‘Adaptation to climate change’ and ‘development’ are reciprocal; adaptation and development issues are currently being emphasized; and adaptation efforts particularly in developing countries should be accelerated. IPCC’s forthcoming chapter 17: Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constraints and Capacity, finalizes the adaptation issue. The concept of autonomous adaptation, a step in the Vulnerability & Adaptation guidelines given by IPCC, UNEP and USCSP (United Sates Country Study Program) in response to extreme flood events in Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River basins in South Asia, is a crucial issue. Bangladesh, as a reference of GBM River basins, faces extreme flood events which might have strong links with climate change. Current literature on climate change associated with flood management in South Asia support this argument. This study has used multi method techniques: current literature review, a random questionnaire survey of over 140 households in seven Unions, two Participatory Rapid Appraisals (PRA) including focus group discussion and professional judgment. The study investigates the issue through two objectives: firstly it examines farmers’ crop adaptation processes in response to different types of extreme flood events (multi peak with longer duration flood, single peak with shorter duration flood and single peak at the period of harvesting) in the case study area over time, and describes how farmers have been adapting with the extreme floods; secondly it assesses the economic consequences of failure effects of autonomous adaptation in response to extreme flood events. The study found that Bangladeshi farmers are highly resilient to the extreme flood events, and the economic consequences (costs of seedlings: either local or HYV, watering, land preparation, laboring etc) of failure effects of autonomous crop adaptation on marginal farmers are huge. The study concludes that urgent action is needed to improve the sustainable crop adaptation capacity in the foreseeable future under climate change conditions.