Blueprint for a unifying framework for synthesis of aquatic ecodynamics

Abstract

Quantitative assessments of aquatic ecosystem dynamics and services are required to guide decision support activities and assess how socioeconomic scenarios of human development impact our aquatic environment. However, we are poorly equipped to predict across a broad range of scales the physical, biogeochemical and ecological interactions that control carbon and nutrient flux pathways, despite a plethora of models and model approaches that have emerged. Our models have languished due to ambiguities and lack of agreement in model conceptualisations, a focus on point-scale rather than system-scale validation, and a general inability to deal with uncertainty, particularly in spatially-resolved interdisciplinary models. Further, the site-specific and highly disciplinary nature of many model applications limits synthesis and transferability of knowledge between sites. Here we outline a blueprint for an integrative approach to address these barriers by facilitating: i) the integration of inter-disciplinary modelling approaches, ii) reducing uncertainty through a multi-scale validation approach and managed assimilation of environmental sensing data, and iii) cross-domain synthesis.