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https://hdl.handle.net/2440/137320
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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high ambient temperature across climate zones: methodological framework with a case study |
Author: | Liu, J. Hansen, A. Varghese, B.M. Dear, K. Tong, M. Prescott, V. Dolar, V. Gourley, M. Driscoll, T. Zhang, Y. Morgan, G. Capon, A. Bi, P. |
Citation: | International Journal of Epidemiology, 2023; 52(3):783-795 |
Publisher: | Oxford University Press (OUP) |
Issue Date: | 2023 |
ISSN: | 0300-5771 1464-3685 |
Statement of Responsibility: | Jingwen Liu, Alana Hansen, Blesson M Varghese, Keith Dear, Michael Tong, Vanessa Prescott, Vergil Dolar, Michelle Gourley, Timothy Driscoll, Ying Zhang, Geoffrey Morgan, Anthony Capon, and Peng Bi |
Abstract: | Background: With high temperature becoming an increasing health risk due to a changing climate, it is important to quantify the scale of the problem. However, estimating the burden of disease (BoD) attributable to high temperature can be challenging due to differences in risk patterns across geographical regions and data accessibility issues. Methods: We present a methodological framework that uses Ko¨ ppen–Geiger climate zones to refine exposure levels and quantifies the difference between the burden observed due to high temperatures and what would have been observed if the population had been exposed to the theoretical minimum risk exposure distribution (TMRED). Our proposed method aligned with the Australian Burden of Disease Study and included two parts: (i) estimation of the population attributable fractions (PAF); and then (ii) estimation of the BoD attributable to high temperature. We use suicide and self-inflicted injuries in Australia as an example, with most frequent temperatures (MFTs) as the minimum risk exposure threshold (TMRED). Results: Our proposed framework to estimate the attributable BoD accounts for the importance of geographical variations of risk estimates between climate zones, and can be modified and adapted to other diseases and contexts that may be affected by high temperatures. Conclusions: As the heat-related BoD may continue to increase in the future, this method is useful in estimating burdens across climate zones. This work may have important implications for preventive health measures, by enhancing the reproducibility and transparency of BoD research. |
Keywords: | High temperature; burden of disease; methodological framework; climate change |
Description: | Advance Access Publication Date: 13 December 2022 |
Rights: | ©The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reproduction and distribution of the work, in any medium, provided the original work is not altered or transformed in any way, and that the work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com |
DOI: | 10.1093/ije/dyac229 |
Grant ID: | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP200102571 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac229 |
Appears in Collections: | Public Health publications |
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