Climatic, reservoir and occupational variables and the transmission of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Being a zoonosis, the transmission of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic, reservoir and occupational factors. This paper has quantified the incidence and potential risk factors of HFRS in Yingshang County, a low-lying epidemic focus of the disease in China. METHODS: Correlation and regression analyses were conducted among climatic variables, the density of mice, autumn crop production and annual incidence of HFRS during the autumn-winter seasons in the County over the period 1980-1996. Results Rainfall (r = -0.63, P = 0.009), the density of mice (r = 0.90, P = 0.000) and autumn crop production (r = 0.67, P = 0.01) were statistically correlated with the incidence of HFRS. Multiple regression analysis indicated that these factors are potential predictors for HFRS transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Rainfall, the density of mice and autumn crop production could be used as predictors of HFRS transmission in low-lying epidemic foci.