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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming? |
Author: | Fordham, D. Akcakaya, H. Araujo, M. Elith, J. Keith, D. Pearson, R. Auld, T. Mellin, C. Morgan, J. Regan, T. Tozer, M. Watts, M. White, M. Wintle, B. Yates, C. Brook, B. |
Citation: | Global Change Biology, 2012; 18(0004):1357-1371 |
Publisher: | Blackwell Science Ltd |
Issue Date: | 2012 |
ISSN: | 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
Statement of Responsibility: | Damien A. Fordham, H. Resit Akçakaya, Miguel B. Araújo, Jane Elith, David A. Keith, Richard Pearson, Tony D. Auld, Camille Mellin, John W. Morgan, Tracey J. Regan, Mark Tozer, Michael J. Watts, Matthew White, Brendan A. Wintle, Colin Yates and Barry W. Brook |
Abstract: | <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Models that couple habitat suitability with demographic processes offer a potentially improved approach for estimating spatial distributional shifts and extinction risk under climate change. Applying such an approach to five species of Australian plants with contrasting demographic traits, we show that: (i) predicted climate‐driven changes in range area are sensitive to the underlying habitat model, regardless of whether demographic traits and their interaction with habitat patch configuration are modeled explicitly; and (ii) caution should be exercised when using predicted changes in total habitat suitability or geographic extent to infer extinction risk, because the relationship between these metrics is often weak. Measures of extinction risk, which quantify threats to population persistence, are particularly sensitive to life‐history traits, such as recruitment response to fire, which explained approximately 60% of the deviance in expected minimum abundance. Dispersal dynamics and habitat patch structure have the strongest influence on the amount of movement of the trailing and leading edge of the range margin, explaining roughly 40% of modeled structural deviance. These results underscore the need to consider direct measures of extinction risk (population declines and other measures of stochastic viability), as well as measures of change in habitat area, when assessing climate change impacts on biodiversity. Furthermore, direct estimation of extinction risk incorporates important demographic and ecosystem processes, which potentially influence species’ vulnerability to extinction due to climate change.</jats:p> |
Keywords: | abundance bioclimate envelope connectivity coupled niche-population model dispersal habitat suitability mechanistic model metapopulation population viability analysis species distribution model |
Rights: | © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
DOI: | 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02614.x |
Grant ID: | LP0989537 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/LP0989537 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/LP0989420 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT0991640 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT100100819 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02614.x |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 4 Earth and Environmental Sciences publications Environment Institute Leaders publications Environment Institute publications |
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